Map of locales Operation Peace Spring
Last update 10/13.
ISIS lost control over central Tikrit following an offensive by the ISF and allied forces with the support of coalition airstrikes. Tikrit was announced captured by the government on April 1, 2015, and PM Abadi, ISF commanders, and local government officials have toured the city center. Since that time, clashes have not been reported in the city and reports that looting of homes is taking place further indicates that combat operations in Tikrit have ceased. The areas immediately surrounding Tikrit likely remain an ISIS attack zone, however.
The recent capture of Tikrit with U.S. air support and the absence of Iraqi Shi'a militias has undermined Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militias’ reputation as indispensable allies to the ISF and the government.
Iraqi Security Forces, Shi'a militias, and the Popular Mobilization have begun to shell Tikrit. Shelling may disrupt ISIS within the city, making further advances to clear ISIS possible. Shelling will also likely inflict civilian casualties, which may have divisive consequences within the Popular Mobilization.
The success or failure of the U.S. mission in Afghanistan has reached a critical juncture. Far from defeated, the ongoing Afghan insurgency remains a serious challenge and threatens to reverse hard-won prior gains.
Various Iraqi forces are pressuring ISIS on three different fronts, all of which are of strategic importance to the organization. ISIS will therefore likely attempt to escalate its attacks elsewhere to divert the resources of these forces.
The main area of Alam sub-district, NE of Tikrit, was declared retaken from ISIS by the ISF, Iraqi Shi’a militias, and local Iraqi Sunni fighters on March 9. Since then, there have been no reports of clashes in the area to suggest a continued presence of ISIS or a concrete effort by ISIS to retake Alam.
While Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced that both the separatists and Ukrainian Anti-Terror Operation (ATO) forces had withdrawn a large amount of heavy weaponry in accordance with the February 12 ceasefire agreement, shelling and clashes persisted in several key areas across the frontline.
Key Take-away: The threat of large-scale attacks in North Sinai by ISIS’s Wilayat Sinai is elevated as of March 12, 2015, but this threat is not assessed to directly target the upcoming Egypt Economic Development Conference in Sharm al-Sheikh scheduled for March 13-15, 2015 due to heightened security in South Sinai. Wilayat Sinai may, however, conduct attacks elsewhere during the conference in order to portray instability and derail economic and political opportunities for the government of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Chris Harmer
"I think it’s important that the American people know this is a long-term fight and that what we’re doing right now, while effective in the short-term, is not going to result in the long-term destruction of ISIS.”